Whether or Not You Have a Horse in the 2016 GOP Presidential Race, It Promises Excitement
by Brent McDermott
IN JUST UNDER a year, caucus goers in Iowa will head to churches, fire halls and gymnasiums to kick off the 2016 primary cycle. Right on cue, the Des Moines Register released poll numbers Thursday, the first crystal ball for the early stages of this campaign.
Hillary Clinton’s 56 percent towered over potential candidates, confirming a David vs. Goliath narrative. Lucky for Clinton, her next closest challenger at 15 percent, Elizabeth Warren has no desire to enter the race and play the role of David. On the other side, the GOP race is wide open. With Scott Walker leading the pack with only 15 percent of the vote, Republican voters appear to be even more malleable than in 2012.
Conventional wisdom used to tell us that “Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.” Clinton has been the frontrunner since leaving her post as Secretary as State and smart money is betting on a wire-to-wire win. Conversely, with no clear favorite, Republicans are ready for a game of Spin the Bottle.
History tells us that Iowans may not necessarily correctly predict party nominees for the GOP. Previous winners include Rick Santorum in 2012, Mike Huckabee in ’08, Bob Dole in ’88 and George Bush in ’80. However, early poll numbers provide a strong indicator for which candidates will stick around to campaign in the Hawkeye state. Weak numbers in Iowa traditionally lead to candidates skipping the caucus, and kissing babies and shaking hands in New Hampshire or South Carolina.
Many things stand out when taking a hard look at the GOP poll numbers. Chief among them is how loaded the Republican field is this cycle. With so many compelling candidates, it’s hard to imagine them all competing in Iowa. Some candidates who are not as compatible with Iowa’s brand of conservatism, such as Chris Christie or Jeb Bush, will look ahead to New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada.
Scott Walker sitting atop the GOP heap at 15 percent was something no one saw coming. Fresh off a fiery stump speech at ‘Freedom Fair’ in Des Moines last Saturday, Walker had the audience in a tizzy over stories of death threats from liberals and union leaders in his home state. Known nationally for facing a recall election after passing Right To Work legislation in Wisconsin, Walker surprised pundits with an untapped supply of charisma on stage at the Citizens United event. Originally projected as a Tim Pawlenty type destined for an underwhelming showing, Walker now finds himself in the catbird seat with about a year left on the clock.
The candidates most likely to skip Iowa are Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Rick Perry. Despite solid name recognition, they all polled under 4 percent in the crowded field. New Hampshire is potentially fertile ground for Christie, the sitting governor of New Jersey. Frequently described in the media as “boisterous” and direct, Christie’s style is reminiscent of John McCain’s “straight talk” Express that earned him Granite State victories in 2000 and 2008. Rick Perry and Marco Rubio, who may have trouble finding their footing in the “Live Free or Die” state, have a less obvious path after Iowa. Mike Huckabee, who won by a landslide in Iowa back in ‘08, starts the race in third place at 13 percent, just behind Rand Paul at 14 percent. Leaving his post at Fox News last month, it is all but a foregone conclusion that the former Arkansas governor is running. A former preacher and Governor, Huckabee has made headlines recently for his staunch opposition to gay marriage. Huckabee stands to benefit most from a protracted GOP field that could extend nominating fight. With a slew of Bible Belt states slated to host primaries on Super Tuesday, Huckabee needs strong showings in Iowa and South Carolina to stay viable.
Thursday’s poll also foreshadows a challenging decision for Jeb Bush.. If Bush passes on Iowa, he will need a win or second place showing in New Hampshire to stay alive. Will New Hampshire’s primary voters embrace Jeb Bush? Maybe. George W. Bush lost by 19 points to John McCain in 2000, but George H.W. Bush, won convincingly in 1988 against Bob Dole. However, with Rand Paul’s brand of libertarian lite and perceived independent streak, and Christie going for broke in the Granite State, Bush could find his back against the wall going into Nevada and South Carolina.
Despite spending an entire year wearing a sweater vest across Iowa and winning the 2012 caucuses, Rick Santorum finds himself in 8th place, culling just 4 percent of likely voters. Santorum found new political life in Iowa last cycle after taking a wallup during the ‘06 midterms as a Pennsylvania senator. Santorum’s deflated showing is an illustration of how deep this field truly is.
Michigan’s primary is tentatively slated for February 23 next year. With such a deep field, the GOP race looks to be more like a marathon than a sprint. Who will have a path to victory and who will hit a wall? Stay tuned.