Crime in Ann Arbor: 35 Percent of Crimes Solved—Since 2012, 8,000+ Crimes Uncleared

LET’S BE CLEAR: In the U.S., Michigan and Ann Arbor crime rates are down. According to data gathered by the FBI, in Ann Arbor, about 1,300 more crimes, total, were committed in 2009 than in 2013. That means, at a minimum, 1,300 fewer people in Ann Arbor (about 1 percent of the city’s residents) were victimized in 2013 than were victimized in 2009. That number’s probably much higher, since crime often impacts many more people in addition to the victim.

There were more robberies, burglaries and more violent crimes committed in 2009 than in 2013 in the U.S., in Michigan and Ann Arbor. Yet, Michigan’s spending on prisons has risen 146 percent since 2006 and its overall spending on education over the same time period has fallen by 9 percent. Ours is one of only a handful of states in which a 14-year-old may automatically be tried as an adult. Michigan has the second largest number of juvenile “lifers” in the country at 358. Incarceration of Michigan residents is at record levels. This is true despite the fact that crimes committed are, in many categories, at rates not seen since 1969.

In 2005, Ann Arbor had 224 FTE employees in its police department with a budget of $21.3 million. By 2013, the AAPD had 146 FTE employees and a budget of $25.5 million.

However, locally, while crime is down it is also up. During a 23 day period in December 2014, there were armed robberies of two Ann Arbor businesses, and two carjackings (one attempted) reported by the AAPD. In a single month, there were 11 rapes reported by the AAPD alone.  The AAPD and the Washtenaw Sheriff have reported, thus far this year, about the same number of rapes (45 per agency). In Ann Arbor, that’s close to double the U.S. rapes per 100,000 person average, according to FBI analyses.

In fact, between 2012 and 2013, the number of people victimized by violent crime, murder, rape and aggravated assault rose in Ann Arbor. Not only did the city’s increase in these types of crimes buck national trends, it bucked state-wide trends, as well.

Yet, in March of 2014 The Ann Arbor Observer quoted Chief John Seto as saying “We look at what are called Part One crimes, including murder, assault, robbery, and burglary and 2013’s were down near 2011’s, which were the lowest ever.”

Note that the Chief of Police focused on Part One crimes and  did not compare 2013 to 2012 data. A previous year comparison shows increases in the number of crimes reported. Chief Seto compared 2013 numbers to 2011 numbers and so was able to tell the Ann Arbor Observer’s reporter that crime was down—when, year-over-year, violent crime had risen.

Chief Seto did not reveal either the total number of crimes reported (6,440 in 2013) or the number of crimes solved, the so-called “clearance rate.” These are significant omissions.

According to FBI clearance rate data, in cities with populations of 100,000-250,000, clearance rates average 43.6 percent. In the U.S., fewer than half of all crimes reported are solved and an arrest made. In Ann Arbor, according to Michigan State Police data, the 2013 clearance rate was 35 percent. At a clearance rate of 35 percent of 6,440 crimes reported, this means 4,186 of those crimes remain uncleared, or open. The U-M police department had a 39 percent clearance rate in 2013.

The AAPD’s clearance rate in 2012 was 30 percent, according to the Michigan State Police.

The Ypsilanti Police Dept. had a 54 percent clearance rate of 3,295 crimes reported in 2013, according to Michigan State Police records.

The highest 2013 crime clearance rates in the county belong to the EMU police force. The agency cleared 70 percent of the 1,170 crimes reported to police there.

In comparison, the Washtenaw County Sheriff’s clearance rate in 2013 was 33 percent, up from 28 percent in 2012.

Chief Seto did not respond to a request for comment.

Elected officials’, the media and, in turn, the public’s focus on the number of crimes, then, while politically convenient is also myopic. The number of crimes may be down in Ann Arbor, but the AAPD’s clearance rate, while up 5 percent, is well below the national average for a city the size of Ann Arbor. While it’s true that fewer people are victimized in Ann Arbor today than in 2011, many thousands of those victims go without having their crimes cleared, or solved, year after year. In just the past 36 months, the AAPD was left with over 12,000 crimes uncleared and fewer than 19 detectives to investigate.

In total, approximately 1.1 million violent crimes were reported to the FBI by local policing agencies in 2013. That was down from 1.325 million violent crimes reported to the FBI in 2009.

In the U.S., rape was down, as well. According to FBI data analyses, “There were an estimated 79,770 rapes reported to law enforcement in 2013. This estimate was 6.3 percent lower than the 2012 estimate, and 10.6 percent and 16.1 percent lower than the 2009 and 2004 estimates, respectively.”

In Ann Arbor, however, rapes are up over 2009 numbers reported by the AAPD to the FBI.

The AAPD’s clearance rates for sexual crimes ranged from 0 to 33 percent in 2013. According to Michigan State Police records, the AAPD’s clearance rate of 29 instances of “SEXUAL PENETRATION PENIS/VAGINA CSC 1ST” in 2013 was 24 percent. In human terms, 22 of 29 victims’ sex crimes were not cleared.

Including sworn officers and civilian employees, the number of full-time employees (FTEs) in the AAPD dropped from 244 to 209 between 2001-2009. In 2014, City Council members, voted to increase the sworn officer count from 119 to 122.

In his “Crime is down” article, published in March 2014, Ann Arbor Observer freelance reporter James Leonard goes on to write, “In a small city like Ann Arbor, month-to-month figures can fluctuate wildly–but five-year comparisons confirm the downward trend. From 2003 to 2008, the city averaged 3,429 Part One crimes per year. From 2009 to 2013, it averaged 3,028.”

The focus on Part One crimes leaves the public uniformed. In 2013, the AAPD reported 6,440 crimes total to the Michigan State Police, 65 percent of which remained uncleared. In 2012, the AAPD reported 6,836 crimes, 70 percent of which remained uncleared.

Criminal justice experts recommend that it is the clearance rates which present the most accurate picture of the effectiveness of any policing agency.

Nationally, the percentage of crimes that go unsolved has skyrocketed, even as crime rates have fallen to the lowest they’ve been since the 1960s. Five decades ago, about 45 percent of robberies were solved, compared with fewer than 25 percent today.

The trend is especially disturbing, experts say, considering that detectives have far more technological tools, such as DNA testing, to solve crimes.

Over the month of Dec. in Ann Arbor, there have been armed robberies and carjackings, one which was unsuccessful.

Johnny Rush’s Barber Shop is a gathering place for neighborhood locals. Mr. Rush, an African-American, has had a shop at the busy intersection of Swift and Broadway, as Broadway turns into Plymouth Road,  for decades. He is romanced by local elected officials thanks to owning a prime spot for placing campaign signs and as an entree into Ann Arbor’s African-American voter block.

According to police records,  in front of Johnny Rush’s barber shop at 4:30 a.m. on Dec. 2, at the corner of Broadway and Swift, just at the bottom of the Broadway Bridge, there was an armed carjacking.

Mr. Rush voices his opinions about Ann Arbor’s smaller police force without hesitation. He will tell you that former Mayor John Hieftje’s cuts to Ann Arbor’s police force were a terrible mistake. He criticizes City Council member Sabra Briere (D-Ward 1) for what he believes is a lack of attention to her constituents and Ward 1 problems, including policing, traffic and illegal parking.

Johnny Rush is not alone in his desire to see Ann Arbor beef up its public safety department.

Council member Jane Lumm (I-Ward 2) has annually during  the month of May, when the city’s budget is approved, brought forward resolutions to increase the number of police officers. Lumm has not always been successful in her efforts. She has, however, been joined routinely in voting for more police funding by combinations of Council colleagues, including Jack Eaton (D-Ward 4), Sumi Kailasapathy (D-Ward 1), Mike Anglin (D-Ward 5 ) and Stephen Kunselman (D-Ward 3).

Council members Kirk Westphal (D-Ward 2) and Julie Grand (D-Ward 3) say decisions about public safety funding should be based on “metrics.” March 2015 will mark the FBI’s release of 2014 crime data in the U.S., including data for Ann Arbor. In May 2015, Council members will vote to approve the city’s annual budget, shaped by City Administrator Steve Powers.