by Joseph DiSano
THE BIGGEST PARLOR game played among political observers is “Will John Dingell retire?” And this year is no different — except there actually may be some merit to the speculation.
It will be a sad day when the congressman retires. Mr. Dingell is a legislative titan—a man of massive consequence who’s impacted modern American life like few others.
Mr. Dingell, like his father before him, annually submitted a bill mandating universal health care. The passage of the Affordable Care Act is a fitting capstone to a legislative career that will be spoken of as long as there people on this planet practice the art of the Republic. No one should be surprised if Mr. Dingell decides to end his career on this high point. And no one should blame him if he does retire.
Which begs the question: Who is next? A Dingell has held that seat since 1933 and there is little reason not to expect this to continue. The newly drawn 12th District is strongly Democratic, so the real competition would be in the primary.
Congressman Dingell’s wife, Debbie Dingell, a powerhouse in her own right, would be the strongest, likeliest candidate to replace him if he stepped down. Always in motion, Debbie Dingell has stepped up her activity level to a near-frenzy—meeting with local activists more often than in years past—stoking speculation that Mr. Dingell’s career may be near an end.
That’s not to say Debbie Dingell is the only potential candidate to replace Mr. Dingell. State Senator Rebekah Warren (D-Ann Arbor) would be a strong candidate. Both Dingell and Warren are pro-choice and reliably progressive.
The only significant policy difference between Debbie Dingell and Warren is on gun control. Dingell, like her husband, is against more gun control laws. Warren has been outspoken in her support of additional gun control, especially in the wake of last year’s tragedy in Newtown.
To her credit, Debbie Dingell has elevated the dialogue on guns by demanding a discussion of mental health issues and gun violence. That may be a subtlety lost on pro-gun control voters in a Democratic primary.
Still it’s tough to not identify gun control as a possible flashpoint in a Democratic primary between Dingell and Warren.
For Warren, the decision to run won’t be easy. She would have to pass up certain re-election to the State Senate for a chance at congressional glory. Dingell would likely outspend her and hold most of the obvious advantages, thus making the gun control issue even more of a factor.
It’s not tough to imagine New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s Super-PAC playing in this race to tilt the scales in Warren’s favor. Bloomberg’s PAC has gone to bat for pro-gun control candidates across the country, with varying degrees of success.
The chance to deny a seat in Congress to the wife of an outspoken Second Amendment advocate like John D. Dingell may be too tempting for Bloomberg to pass up. This would be a marquee opportunity for Bloomberg to showcase the effectiveness of his Super-PAC. Especially after his recent failure to defend a gun control advocate in a Colorado recall election.
If Warren passed on the race, the pro-gun control banner could be held by former state Sen. Alma Wheeler Smith or former Congresswoman Lynn Rivers. Rivers, of course, was blown out by Mr. Dingell when thrown in a district with him back in 2002. It remains to be seen if she has the desire to endure another grueling race for Congress. But she should not be counted out, even if her political chops are rusty after a decade.
Other elected officials may take long looks at this potential opening include state Reps. Jeff Irwin (D-Ann Arbor), Andrew Kandrevas (D-Southgate), David Knezek (D-Dearborn Heights) or David Rutledge (D-Ypsilanti). State Sen. Glenn Anderson (D-Westland) could move into the district. Wayne County Board of Commissioners Chair Gary Woronchak and County Commissioner Ray Basham are both possibilities.
Mrs. Dingell is in the best position to replace her husband if circumstances demand it. But there is no lack of credible challengers to claim the “Dingell seat.” Pundits, political oddsmakers, issue advocates and candidates are salivating at the chance of a spirited race in the wake of a possible Dingell retirement.
Whatever his decision is, Mr. Dingell has earned the right many times over to end this legendary story the way he sees fit.