Insider Baseball: Will the MI GOP Come Tumbling Down? State Races To Watch
by Joseph DiSanoIt’s the time of year when every wannabe pundit and political Nostradamus unveils their prognostications on this year elections. Guess what? No one knows for sure, and those that claim to are lying. A common prediction you will hear from every player in the Pundit Olympics is which party will claim control of the Michigan House of Representatives in January 2013. I am going to be honest as a political consultant can be. I don’t know—at least not yet.
So no predictions from me, but here are some of the factors to consider if you want to make your own predictions.
First up would be to look at the current political climate here in Michigan. Control of the State House has as much to do with the top of the ticket as it do with any other factor. No one knows yet if Mitt Romney is going to play in Michigan next fall. If he doesn’t, this could play into Democratic control of the State House. State House candidates rarely drive turnout, and without a vigorous battle for Michigan’s electoral votes, tens of thousands of Republicans may sit out Election Day and give Democrats an advantage.
The next factor to look at is money. This is a factor that will almost always result in GOP advantage. Just look at the cash-on-hand numbers of Democratic candidates and GOP candidates and the numbers will be shocking. Add in the Bobby Schostack-led GOP money machine and the GOP will have enough money to wage political warfare regardless of the intensity of Romney’s activities in the state.
The next factor—and probably the most important factor—is the quality of individual candidates. There are many elements that determine candidate quality. The tenacity to raise gobs of campaign cash, the ability to fake sincerity and a relentless work ethic all add up to a quality political candidate. This is a factor that doesn’t tip the scale for any political party on a whole. Instead, it is an advantage born out of the political trench warfare of visiting voters at their doors and squeezing donors for every penny they’ll give.
So here are a few races whose outcomes will determine if Speaker Jase Bolger keeps the gavel or has to pass it to a Democratic successor.
52nd District—currently held by GOP State Representative Mark Ouimet. The new configuration of this Washtenaw County district helps Ouimet, but not as much as he would like. He has a top-tier challenger in Saline Mayor Gretchen Driskell, who is proving to be a top-notch campaigner. The edge currently is held by the ethically challenged Ouimet due to the size of his campaign war chest.
71st District—this suburban Lansing district is currently represented by ex-Charlotte Mayor Deb Shaughnessy. Like many GOP freshman, Shaughnessy has taken many controversial votes that may prove troubling to voters this November. Shaughnessy’s opposition is former State Senate staffer Andrea Cascarilla. Cascarilla has to face two primary opponents in August, but the smart money is on Cascarilla to win and give Shaughnessy the fight of her life.
103rd District—GOP freshman Bruce Rendon has drawn an unexpected but talented challenger in national Democratic operative Lon Johnson. Johnson is a Michigan native who is married to Julianna Smoot, the Deputy Campaign Manager of President Obama’s re-election campaign. Johnson is a political heavyweight in his own right though. He managed Congressman John Dingell’s re-election campaign in 2002 and raised money for Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign. This is a race that bears watching closely straight through to November.
At this point, there are at least two dozen races that could flip parties in November. There are too many factors to make a prediction on partisan control. And many of those factors are far beyond the control of the candidates. Right now, the best course of action for candidates (and their supporters) is to forget what they can’t control and focus on the factors they can control (money, door-to-door and organization) and hope for the best.
And that’s not a bad position to be in six months from Election Day.
